Assuming Obado was to go, The governor would be one JOHN MAHANGA till 2022.
This fellow comes from Kuria(Kuria East), a community that has always slapped Raila very hard on the face every time he tries to please them.
In 2013, Raila worked so hard to entice this community including literally working out a negotiated democracy that would hand them Women rep, Speaker of the county assembly, and Senator on a platter of gold–without breaking a single sweat in exchange to voting Raila.
The outcome of the election was disastrous; they voted William Ruto led URP/Jubilee & Uhuru to a man. The two MP positions there went to URP and KANU.
In 2017, they went to bed with Jubilee wholesale both in Kuria East of Kitayama and West of Robi. Most of the MCAs were elected through Jubilee affiliates.
But again, democracy like sex is very PERSONAL! I fully respect their group/collective ballot decisions. They can vote for a dog, it is their undeletable entitlement.
Come with me.
Whereas it is true that the middle-class here who are handful support Raila, on the ground, vitu ni different –they have never voted for the Luos or with Luos to a meaningful point. This is the spoken truth. Even when Raila announced a boycott of the rerun, here, they thronged the polling stations to give Uhuru TANO TENA.
But it is also true that the commoners here support and greatly appreciate Obado as a person. And not through the ODM badge he wears. In 2013, they ganged up to vote Obado en masse in PDP humiliating the ODM candidate then, who is my friend here.
Kuria have been pushing for the creation of their own county led by nonagenarian Machage and most of its elites since 2015 or thereabout. Assuming they get it in the upcoming referendum and going by their voting trends, this vote will go with William Ruto in 2022.
Kicking out Obado will be the best God-sent gift to two people:
- The Kuria community who hardly appreciate Raila. If anything, they will enjoy this position, then jump into their own county in 2022 and toss champagne to the gods of politics.
- William Ruto will be the greatest accidental beneficiary. This will be his biggest propaganda coup. And should Kuria become a county, William will be singing “Eureka!Eureka! in Kalenjin.
Its called LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE!
This why this issue of Obado is tricky beyond the misdirected emotions and primitive energies you see all over.
The local men and women on the ground in Migori who boycotted Raila’s 2013 negotiated democracy that easily gave Denitah Gati women rep, Machage Senate etc, and voted as they did in 2017 to Pamela and the late Ben Oluoch Okello are a worried lot.
They are asking kamae: Umayo Obado kom ni umiyo Watende? Be wiu ber?
NB: I respect the way Kuria people vote. It’s their choice. My update should not be seen to champion tribal nationalism or ethnic schism.
Credit Onyango Ochieng Jr.